Service Plays Saturday 11/21/09

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Maddux

#316 - NCAA - 3 units on Michigan +12
#346 - NCAA - 3 units on Wyoming +31.5
#348 - NCAA - 3 units on Arkansas -11
#349 - NCAA - 3 units on Connecticut +6
#356 - NCAA - 3 units on UCLA -4.5
#360 - NCAA - 3 units on Mississippi -4
#380 - NCAA - 3 units on Arizona +6
#381 - NCAA - 3 units on SMU +4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Greg Roberts

5* Stanford

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc Sports


“The Magnificent 7” Saturday, November 21st, 2009

6 Unit Play. #36 Take Northwestern +7 over Wisconsin (Saturday 3:30 pm Big Ten Network) Top Play of the Weekend. Northwestern 31, Wisconsin 28.

5 Unit Play. #28 Take Michigan +12 over Ohio State (Saturday 12 pm ABC) Top Big 10 Play. Ohio State 24, Michigan 17.

5 Unit Play. #30 Take Michigan State +3 over Penn State (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Top Underdog Play. MSU 31, PSU 28.

4 Unit Play. #61 Take Kentucky +8 over Georgia (Saturday 7:45 pm ESPN 2) Kentucky 24, Georgia 21.

4 Unit Play. #80 Take Clemson -21 over Virginia (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) Clemson 42, Virginia 10.

4 Unit Play. #86 Take Middleton Tennessee State -10 over Arkansas State (Saturday 4:30 pm ESPN 360) MTS 41, Ark St 17.

4 Unit Play. #100 Take Arizona +6 over Oregon (Saturday 8 pm ABC) U of A 27, Oregon 23.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doctor Bob

5 Best Bets for week 12 and 3 Strong Opinions.

Rotation #338 Missouri (-14) 3-Stars at -14 or less, 2-Stars up to -17.
Rotation #358 Stanford (-7) 2-Stars at -7 or less.
Rotation #369 Baylor (+6 1/2) 2-Stars at +4 or more, 3-Stars at +7.
Rotation #381 SMU (+4) 3-Stars at +3 1/2 or more, 2-Stars at +3.
Rotation #392 Central Florida (-21) 2-Star Best Bet at -21 or less.

Strong Opinion - Rotation #326 South Florida(-11 1/2) Strong Opinion at -12 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #342 Georgia (-8) Strong Opinion at -10 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -7.
Strong Opinion - Rotation #348 Arkansas (-11) Strong Opinion at -12 or less, 2-Star Best Bet at -10.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Spartan GOY

triple-dime bet 379 Oregon -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 380 Arizona

Analysis: Last time the Oregon Ducks ventured into Tucson was not a good
outcome to say the least. It was 2007 and high hopes were dashed as
quarterback Dennis Dixon went down, Brady Leaf came in and the rest is
history. The Ducks will have some redemption on their minds and I'm betting
they get it. Some might look for an Arizona rebound from last weeks loss at
Cal but I just like the way this Ducks team is playing right now a lot more.
Mike Stoops has built a sound defense and DE Ricky Elmore is the real deal
but the Ducks can score a ton of points and in a hurry. I'd be real
surprised if the Wildcats can keep pace. I know Stoops has his kids eyeing a
Pac 10 title but the fact is Oregon is one of the hottest teams in the
country right now. The Ducks offense, which is very fake heavy, is one of
the most difficult in college football for teams to defend. This Oregon
squad is a salty bunch that has played in more big games than Arizona and
been battle tested. I suspect they will deal with the ESPN Gameday drama and
hype better that the home guys. I've looked at this game from every angle,
talked with a few different sources I trust a great deal. I'm ready to
declare it, my one and only college game of the year is the Oregon Ducks,
see them taking this thing by a couple of touchdowns.

 

[BIGTEX5]

Football Jesus Freeplay - Miss

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Teddy Covers

CFB 20* Big Ticket: Kentucky +10 (341)**

CFB Rutgers -8 (327)**
CFB UCLA -4.5 (356)**
CFB Texas Tech +6.5 (368)**
CFB Arizona Over 60 -110 (380)**
CFB Hawaii -3 (395)**

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Strike Point Sports

Saturday's College Football Plays

3-Unit Play. #353 Take Penn State -3 over Michigan State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)

3-Unit Play. Take LSU/Mississippi 'Under' 42.5 (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)

3-Unit Play. #365 Take Kansas State (+16.5) over Nebraska (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 19)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Robert Ferringo

COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #337 Iowa State (+14) over Missouri (2 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

5-Unit Play. Take #341 Kentucky (+9.5) over Georgia (7:45 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)
Note: This is our SEC Game of the Year. I could have just tacked on the extra two Units and "went for it", but that's not my style. So while I hate to not go with a bigger GOTY but I'm not going to put your money at risk for my own ego or "just because". But I like the play and I think it's a strong spot for us.

2-Unit Play. Take #349 Connecticut (+6) over Notre Dame (2:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

2-Unit Play. Take #358 Stanford (-7) over California (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #362 BYU (-10) over Air Force (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #363 UAB (+12) over East Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #371 UTEP (-6) over Rice (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

2-Unit Play. Take #382 Marshall (-3.5) over SMU (4:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 21)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nationwide (Gold Sheet) phones:

Top Plays: Northwestern, Kansas State.
Regulars: Tennessee, Kentucky, Connecticut, Troy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tim Trushel

20* Arizona

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mac Monster

20 Kent St + 13
20 Akron + 10.5
20 Ohio -1
15 Oregon - 6
15 Oregon St -30.5
10 Byu -10
10 Arkansas -11
10 Army +2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sports Marketwatch – NCAA Week 12

Overall Record = 19-13-1 (59.4%)

Warning to all new readers of the NCAA Football Sports Marketwatch column: in order to follow our selections, you'll need ice running through your veins. Be prepared to take up meditation or acupuncture to calm the nerves. The goal of this weekly column is to highlight games that offer true “line value.” Often, if a line looks too go to be true, there is a reason. The underlining theme every week is line value. You'll occasionally need the worst teams on the board to come through. We typically buy on bad news and sell on good.

NCAA Sports MarketWatch Week 12 – Games to Watch

Kent State vs. Temple (1 p.m. EST)

Kent State could not get anything going on the ground in their last game, totaling 38 yard rushing in a 28-20 road loss to Akron two weeks ago. Temple was much more successful in their visit to Akron Saturday, scoring 42 unanswered points in a 56-17 shellacking of the Zips.

Temple opened as a 13.5-point favorite at Olympic are currently receiving 79% of spread bets, 98% of moneyline bets and 91% of parlay bets. Although the Owls are the clear-cut public favorite, sharp money has come down on Kent State, shrinking the line to -10.5 at Olympic, while triggering two Smart Money Plays, one each at Sportbet (+6.99 units) and CRIS (+12.05 units), on the Golden Flashes. Two positive Steam Moves have also been triggered on Kent State, so we'll follow the Smart Money, go against the public and take the Flashes.

Kent State +11.5 (WSEX)

Army vs. North Texas (4 p.m. EST)

After being blown out by Air Force two weeks ago, Army's Patrick Mealy ran for 136 yards as the Black Knights rebounded to beat VMI 22-17 Saturday. North Texas went to the locker room with a 14-point halftime lead against Florida International last week, only to watch the Golden Panthers score 21 unanswered points over the final two quarters of the game.

This matchup opened as a pick at CRIS and the public has jumped behind Army, who is receiving 65% of spread bets, 82% of moneyline bets and 59% of parlay bets. North Texas is a considerable public underdog, yet the line has moved opposite of the percentages, pushing the Mean Green to a 2.5-point favorite at CRIS. Matchbook (+16.12 units) triggered a Smart Money Play on North Texas, so we'll once again go against the public, take the home-favorite and give two points.

North Texas -2

California vs. Stanford (7:30 p.m. EST)

As mentioned above in our Week 11 recap, California scored a touchdown late, topping Arizona 24-16. This week the Bears take on Stanford, who has scored 106 points in their last two games, victories over Oregon and USC.

Following last week's drubbing of USC, Stanford opened as a 6.5-favorite at CRIS and is receiving 78% of all spread bets. With so much action on the home-favorite, the line has increased to -7.5 at most sportsbooks tracked by SportsInsights and even -8 at a couple of shops. Three positive Smart Money plays have been triggered on California, including one at CRIS (+12.05 units). A Steam Move was also triggered on the Bears at 5Dimes (+16.9 units), so we're going to go ahead and grab Cal at +8 while it's still out there.

California +8

So, here's a wrap-up of SportsInsights' analysis of this week's Games to Watch for NCAA Football Week 12.

Games to Watch (19-13-1)
Kent State +11.5 (WSEX)
North Texas -2
California +8

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tom Stryker

College Football System of the Week!
Last Road Game Money-Maker
At this time of the year, you hear a lot about “last home game” systems. And you should. These time-tested and proven methods of handicapping have been extremely profitable.

Since there are so many powerful “LHG” sets, I wondered if there was any money to be found regarding teams playing in their last road game of the year. Honestly, I didn’t discover a whole lot. The strength of college football teams running on Senior Day is a bit too much. Luckily, after some intense research, I did uncover one situation that made a good chunk of change. Here’s what you want to do:

Play ON any college football road team playing in its regular season finale provided they enter off a straight up home loss of 10 points or more and are matched up against an opponent that enters off a straight up victory of 10 points or more.

29 Year Record = 47-24 ATS for 66.1 percent!

If you just read that system and didn’t know the results, your knee-jerk reaction would be to go against those road teams. Let’s face it, after just getting dusted in their last home game, no one would want to hit the road for their season finale off an embarrassing loss. Emotionally, it would be safe to say that these guests might be spent. That’s not the case at all. This Saturday, there is one school locked into this play on system: Kansas State.

There are a couple of ways to make this situation even better. First, if our guest is matched up against an opponent that checks in off back-to-back straight up wins, this system tightens up to a tremendous 31-12 ATS! Nebraska just demolished Kansas and Oklahoma in its last two battles and, thanks to those big wins, the Cornhuskers will check into this Big 12 affair laying a few more points that they should.

Finally, with out 31-12 ATS in hand, this technical gem can tighten up to a phenomenal 24-6 ATS provided our guest arrives without rest. With the memory of their last home game loss still fresh, our “play on” visitor arrives motivated and prepared for the task at hand. The Wildcats apply to both special parameters!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Norm Hitzges

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Double Plays

· Texas -27.5 vs Kansas

· Rice +6.5 vs UTEP

· South Florida -11.5 vs Louisville

· UCLA – 4.5 vs Arizona State

· UConn +6 vs Notre Dame

· Arkansas -11 vs Mississippi State

· Mississippi -4 vs

· Middle Tennessee -10 vs Arkansas State

Single Plays

· Wisconsin -7 vs Northwestern

· Rutgers -8.5 vs Syracuse

· Clemson -21 vs Virginia

· Indiana +3 vs Purdue

· Florida State -19 vs Maryland

· Temple -13 vs Kent State

· Oregon State -31 vs Washington State

· Missouri -14.5 vs Iowa State

· Houston -23.5 vs Memphis

· Louisiana Tech +9 vs Fresno

· Arizona +6 vs Oregon

· Southern Mississippi -8 vs Tulsa

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Morrison System Play 11/21

(A) Bet on Milwaukee vs the Grizzlies. This Should be a win on the 'A' Bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ice picks: Today's best NHL bets

Pittsburgh Penguins at Atlanta Thrashers (+110, 6.0)

There could be firewagon hockey in Philips Arena.

The Thrashers are second in the league in scoring, averaging 3.61 goals per game. They have no one in the top 10 in scoring but five skaters with at least 15 points.

Atlanta's offense also has gotten a boost from the recent return of playmaker Ilya Kovalchuk, who was out nearly three weeks with a foot injury.

Kovalchuk has registered a point in all four games since his return, totaling four goals and seven assists. Atlanta is 3-1 with 18 goals in that span.

Making things easier for the Thrashers could be a banged-up blue line for the Penguins. Defensemen Kristopher Letang, Alex Goligoski, Jay McKee and Brooks Orpik - all of whom average at least 15 minutes per game - are out with injuries.

Pittsburgh also boasts Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin, who are finding their form again after early season injuries.

Pick: Over 6.0


Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (+118, 6.0)

Washington's Alexander Ovechkin has picked up right where he left off.

After missing more than two weeks with what was believed to be a shoulder injury, Ovechkin returned with a goal in Tuesday's 4-2 road win over the New York Rangers. That gave him 10 goals in his last nine games.

"I waited for this day a long time, two weeks, so I’m happy to come back," Ovechkin told The New York Times.

Despite missing six games, Ovechkin still is tied for the NHL lead with 15 goals. The Capitals didn't seem to miss their superstar, going 4-2 and averaging 3.8 goals in his absence to maintain their spot as the NHL's top-scoring team.

The Maple Leafs have lost five in a row, allowing an average of 4.4 goals during the slide. When the teams met on October 3, Ovechkin had a goal and two assists in a 6-4 home win.

Pick: Capitals -128

 

[Stu Padasso]

Malinsky Saturday

All Lines at time of release

5* Rutgers -8
4* Tennessee -17
6* Kentucky +9
4* miss st/Arkansas Under 60.5
4* Uconn/Notre Dame Under 58
6* Texas Tech +7
4* UTEP/Rice Under 68

Sunday Oakland Raiders +9.5


Stu

 

[SMITTYWANTSWINNERS]

Football Jesus free pick from podcast: take ole miss -3.5/4 (vs lsu)...he expects the score to be ole miss 41, lsu 17